How NepseIQ Works

NepseIQ combines live market data, standard technical indicators and a forecast model that is tested before anything it says is shown. This page explains each part — including what it cannot do — so you can judge how much weight to give it.

📊 Data

• Live data: live prices, the index and each trading day's closing prices come from the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE).
• How often: during trading hours (11:00–15:00 NPT, Monday to Friday) the index is refreshed about every minute and the full price table about every three minutes. Pages say when their data was last updated.
• History: daily open, high, low, close and volume for every listed company, going back to 2011 for many. Older prices on charts are adjusted for bonus and rights shares, so a bonus never reads as a fall in price.

📈 Technical Indicators

All indicators are computed on the full adjusted history and only then cut to the period on screen, so a value at the left edge of a chart is the same however far back you scroll.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI measures the speed and size of recent price changes on a scale of 0–100. We use the standard 14-day period.

• Below 30: oversold — the share has been sold heavily and may bounce
• Above 70: overbought — the share may be due for a pullback
• RSI is one factor, not a standalone decision tool

SMA (Simple Moving Average)

We compare the price with its 20-day and 50-day averages to describe the short and medium-term trend.

• 20-day above 50-day: the medium-term trend is up — a shorter-term version of the classic 50/200-day "golden cross"
• 20-day below 50-day: the medium-term trend is down

Volume Analysis

We compare today's volume with the 20-day average volume.

• Volume spike (2× average or more): unusual activity — news, a larger investor, or a breakout

52-Week Range

We show how close a share is to its 52-week high or low, measured on adjusted prices.

• Near the 52-week high (within 3%): could break out or meet resistance
• Near the 52-week low (within 2%): could be value, or a falling knife

Support and Resistance

Levels come from the turning points of the last year of daily prices: nearby turns are grouped into one level and scored by how often and how recently the price turned there. The two nearest on each side of the price are shown. More on how to use them.

📉 Forecast

The forecast is one model trained on every listed share's adjusted daily history since 2011, retrained every week and scored after each close. It answers only the questions it has shown it can answer, tested on years it had never seen:

• How far, not which way. For 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 trading days, the range the price stayed inside 8 times in 10 in similar conditions. On 2016–2026 data it held 80–82% of the time overall and 78–81% in the roughest periods. It fails in sudden breaks, as in the 2020 reopening.
• The chance of beating the average share over the next 5 trading days, for shares that trade most days. It is calibrated on the most recent year and shown with its track record. The edge is small — smaller than the cost of a round trip — so it is one input, not a reason to trade.
• No up/down call and no price target. No model we tested called direction better than a coin toss.
• Each week the model checks itself against the most recent year it did not train on. Any part that stops beating the simple alternative is switched off, and the page says so. Where there is no current reading for a share, its own last-year range is shown instead, labelled as such.

The full study and its limits: Can NEPSE be predicted? What 15 years of data say.

🧠 AI Assistant (IQ)

IQ is a conversational assistant built on a large language model, given NepseIQ's own market data for each question.

• It receives the index, the day's movers, sectors, turnover, the forecast model's readings and the stock you are looking at
• It is told to state only numbers that are in that data — never to invent a level, a target or a reason for a move — and to explain terms in plain words
• It never gives buy or sell advice
• Not financial advice. AI can be wrong. Verify before trading.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers

• All signals are algorithmic indicators, not recommendations
• Technical analysis works best when combined with fundamental analysis
• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• NepseIQ is not a registered financial advisor
• Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a professional before investing